Impact of Convergence on the TV Industry

The question was posed to me- "How will the merging of TV, the Internet, and phones/mobile devices affect the television industry? Is it still just the TV industry?

The TV industry is multi-faceted. If this question refers to the content producers, the impact will be extremely positive. The platform convergence along with the democratization of content creation will result in the continued leveling of the playing field and the emergence of great innovation in content, with lots more places to distribute.

From a TV service distribution standpoint, the impact will be the negative erosion of the subscriber base for cable and satellite companies who have not made broadband a staple offering among their bundles. According to a recent report from ChangeWave Research, among traditional TV viewers, 20% say they're likely to downgrade or cancel their current TV service package in the next 6 months. The likelihood of canceling is highest among Cable subscribers (22%) and Satellite subscribers (22%), and lowest among fiber-optic TV subscribers (7%). Finally, from a TV advertising standpoint beyond the targeting, contextual and behavioral tracking benefits the convergence will provide, there is an overall sentiment that audiences will be more likely to engage with a brand on an interactive platform than the would be with a traditional TV ad.

While Boomers clearly want to see fewer ads than they do with conventional broadcasting, 68% say they are willing to view at least some ads online.


Broadband video now represents a significant threat to traditional TV viewing. According to the ChangeWave Research Study:

• 69% of Boomers say they've watched video content on their computer over the past 90 days
• 48% of respondents say they'd be willing to pay a monthly fee for a Video-over-the-Internet subscription if it provided the same programming currently available on their TV service
• 79% watch YouTube.com as the leading online website Boomers use to watch video
• 39% TV Network Websites
• 16% Hulu.com
• 11% iTunes

From the perspective of the longtail, the number of choices may be too overwhelming to consume on some of these devices unless software, search, and other providers begin developing deeper personalization capabilities to enable consumers to only get what they want or need on these devices instead of the entire universe of offerings.

Lastly, I believe the convergence will ultimately continue to fragment the overall media landscape, not just the TV industry and its respective la familias- bada bing!

Dominance Disguised as an Android

As Google continues to grow, is it their intent to hide their continued dominance under the thin veil of Open Source?

This week, Google unveiled an alliance (Open Handset Alliance) with 33 companies to make new software available free of charge to power mobile phones that will hit the market in the second half of 2008. Last week Google unveiled the alliance around it's Open Social social networking platform.

If this isn't a smart company I don't know what is. Strategic partnerships are integral to each of Google's viable (read non-beta) product/service launches.

Not too mention that the wireless landscape is in need of a huge disruptor like the Android platform proposes itself to be - a low cost, flexible, and hardware agnostic platform.

On Open Social

GigaOm's Om Malik points out that Google's entire business model depends on information being public--search is just a tool used to glean more information about us so the company can serve more targeted advertising. The idea behind OpenSocial is more of the same: provide free tools for (developers in this case) to create free, open software and then help developers monetize their programs through AdSense. Therefore, Google doesn't really have to get into the social networking game.

Well the case is that Google only has to dip their toe into the Social Networking game in order to have significant influence over the social networking space in terms of monetizing the output of capabilities develop using their 'standard' of OpenSocial.

Perhaps I am can easily now be lumped in with those calling Google the evil empire, but I challenge everyone with the question, "What is that threshold when it becomes too much control for one organization to have over the advertising distribution mechanisms for every media including digital, known to mankind?"

On the 'latest' (2007 - 2008) future of AOL...A portal no more

While the Falco strategy of building out a full fledge advertising network ('a la Platform 'A') and abandoning the notion of being a portal play, might have wings for the next 6 months, one still has to realize that online and other media channels are still incredibly fragmented, which means advertisers trying to optimize their ad spends will still have a hell of a time trying to figure out where to buy.

Wireless, cable, broadcast, TiVo, news print (yes, I said it - still a viable spend), outdoor/transportation, radio, the bellys of pregnant women, the options for reaching eyeballs is ever increasing and just because you seek to amass broadbased inventory online alongside user generated content and a funky margin mix with ad network affiliates, this strategy will not guarantee success. Besides does anyone remember what happens to advertising when a recession hits!?! The cliche’ “Don’t put all of your eggs in one basket” comes to mind.